ECHO Risk Assessment: United States at Moderate Risk of Decline from Democratic Republic to Autocracy
Author’s Note: ECHO Intelligence is a collective of intelligence, law enforcement, and national security professionals representing diverse backgrounds, operational experiences, and mission sets. What unites this collective is an unwavering commitment to national and homeland security and to the enduring defense of the constitutional values of the United States. Our mission is analytic, not partisan; our concern is the health and security of the Republic itself.
ECHO issues this assessment with grave caution and sober resolve. In recent months, we have observed the erosion of systemic democratic and civil norms, the rise of nationalist and populist rhetoric among elected and appointed officials, and steps reasonably indicative of curtailed civil liberties and movement toward consolidation of power.
As former U.S. Navy SEAL and author Jack Carr warned in The Terminal List:
“The consolidation of power at the federal level in the guise of public safety is a national trend and should be guarded against at all costs. This erosion of rights, however incremental, is the slow death of freedom. We have reached a point where the power of the federal government is such that they can essentially target anyone of their choosing. Recent allegations that government agencies may have targeted political opponents should alarm all Americans, regardless of party affiliation. Revisionist views of the Constitution by opportunistic politicians and unelected judges with agendas that reinterpret the Bill of Rights to take power away from the people and consolidate it at the federal level threaten the core principles of the Republic. As a free people, keeping federal power in check is something that should be of concern to us all. The fundamental value of freedom is what sets us apart from the rest of the world. We are citizens, not subjects, and we must stay ever vigilant that we remain so.”
ECHO reaffirms that principle: we are citizens, not subjects. Vigilance is not optional; it is the necessary condition for the survival of the Republic.
- BISHOP
Disclaimer: This assessment is derived exclusively from open-source intelligence (OSINT) gathered from publicly available information. The analysis, findings, and conclusions presented are intended for apolitical informational purposes only and do not represent official government policy or classified intelligence assessments. The inclusion of names of U.S. persons in this assessment is not intended to—nor should it be interpreted as, an expressed or implied threat. Rather, the inclusion of named individuals in this report has been deemed critical for readers’ comprehensive understanding and further review of evidence. While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy and rigor, OSINT is inherently vulnerable to misinformation, bias, and manipulation. Readers are strongly advised to apply independent verification and critical judgment when using this material. The authors and distributors of this document deny responsibility for any misinterpretation, unintended application, or consequences arising from reliance on the information contained herein. Information cutoff: September 6, 2025.
Executive Summary & Key Findings
ECHO assesses that the U.S. is at moderate risk of decline from a democratic republic to an autocracy, threatening constitutional integrity and national security. We base this assessment on publicly available news media reporting, academic research, non-partisan studies, and public statements and memoranda from the Executive Administration. This assessment is made with medium confidence.
We base this assessment on the key assumption that the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives and Senate through the 2025 special and 2026 midterm congressional elections. We further assume that President Trump will serve the entirety of his second four-year presidential term. Reporting on the significant deterioration in President Trump's health, the Republican Party's expressed non-backing of an unconstitutional third term, and the loss of public support from Congressional Republicans would decrease our confidence in this assessment.
ECHO defines the decline of a democratic republic to autocracy (DtA) in six components: (i) erosion of trust and norms; (ii) populist strongman leadership; (iii) institutional capture and legal manipulation; (iv) curtailment of civil liberties; (v) consolidation of power; and (vi) open autocracy. For each component, the STEMPLES+ framework (social, technological, economic, military, political, legal, environmental, security, plus) is leveraged to define nine mutually exclusive and comprehensively exhaustive signposts and indicators. ECHO notes that while indicators of open autocracy typically emerge only after a society has crossed a tipping point, the preceding five components may metastasize concurrently or outside of the anticipated sequence.
Key Judgements:
ECHO assesses a moderate risk (46%, see **Methodology - Signposts & Indicators) of American democratic decline toward autocracy. Indicators of erosion are visible across five of six DtA components — early fractures that, while not yet catastrophic, suggest systemic strain.
Trust and legitimacy in American electoral and civic society are eroding, evidenced by the continued decline in voter turnout, entrenched partisan polarization, moral contempt based on political ideology, and widespread dependence on social media echo chambers for information and news.
President Trump’s second term exhibits the hallmarks of populist strongman leadership, including mass rallies containing existential and apocalyptic rhetoric, the scapegoating of minorities, the consistent use of unconventional direct communication channels, and sustained and escalated attacks on the judiciary branch.
Institutional capture catalyzed by loyalist appointments, politicized firings, the delegitimization of independent oversight mechanisms, and signals from the executive showing a willingness to circumvent constitutional term limits.
Civil liberties and structural checks and balances to executive power are under direct threat, with military deployments against civilian protestors, purges of senior national security officials, and collective weakening of institutional resilience in the federal government.
Leveraging the structured analytic technique Alternative Futures Analysis, ECHO has identified four alternative American futures based on varied levels of institutional resilience and unforeseen crises: Crisis Autocracy, Stress-Tested Democracy, Slow-Boil Erosion, and Challenged, But Firm Democracy.
U.S. Shows Moderate Risk of Decline to Autocracy
At the time of writing, and as detailed in the Methodology – Signposts & Indicators section, the United States has met the threshold of moderate risk of DtA (46%). This decline is characterized by multiple accelerants and the growing vulnerability of institutional democratic safeguards. ECHO has significant concerns of snowballing democratic decline in the next three years.
Erosion of Trust and Norms
The U.S. shows mounting signs of erosion of trust and norms, with measurable declines in electoral participation and confidence, intensifying partisan hostility, and growing vulnerability to disinformation. Current evidence indicates the U.S. has met 57% of the signposts and indicators of the erosion of trust and norms.
Declining voter turnout and escalating partisan polarization are eroding American democratic legitimacy:
According to Axios reporting, voter participation in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election decreased to 65% in line with a consistent sub-70% voter turnout.
Simultaneously, political polarization in the U.S. has peaked with 77% of Republicans now identifying as conservative (24% “very conservative), while 55% of Democrats identify as liberal (19% as “very liberal), with moderates in both parties seeing a sharp decline per Gallup.
Additionally, studies from the Pew Research Center indicate that partisan hostility has hardened into moral contempt, with 72% of Republicans and 63% of Democrats viewing the opposing political party as more immoral than other Americans.
Social media dependence has fueled politicized echo chambers, leaving Americans vulnerable to foreign disinformation and influence threats:
In 2025, 54% of Americans–most concentrated in those under the age of 35–primarily consumed news and received information via social media platforms rather than traditional news media formats, according to Guardian.
A 2015 study found that 10.1 million American Facebook users showed algorithmic curation sharply reduced exposure to opposing viewpoints, and the 2025 Annual Threat Assessment of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) warns Russia, China, and Iran exploit these vulnerabilities through extremely sophisticated and coordinated disinformation campaigns.
American confidence in its own electoral processes remains markedly low:
Populist Strongman Leadership
Most central to the rise of a populist strongman are the development of a personality cult, the use of mass rallies, the scapegoating of minorities, reliance on unconventionally direct communication channels, and public attacks on institutional checks and balances. Evidence shows the U.S. meets 57% of the signposts and indicators associated with the emergence of populist strongman leadership.
Mass rallies and minority scapegoating rhetoric deepen polarization and fear:
In the lead-up to the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, President Trump leveraged large campaign rallies to portray the race in existential and apocalyptic terms.
Trump’s rhetoric escalated in 2024, calling undocumented immigrants “animals” and “not human” while warning of national disaster if he were not elected.
Further, at a May 2024 rally, he claimed–without evidence–that African and Middle Eastern migrants were “building an army” to attack Americans “from within.”
President Trump’s reliance on direct social media channels undermines institutional communication norms:
Since his first term, President Trump has used personal social media platforms–most notably X (formerly Twitter)--to bypass traditional systems. By mid-2019, Pew Research Center found that one-in-five American adults on X followed his account (@realDonaldTrump), where he airs personal grievances, announces policy positions, attacks opponents and dissidents, and even conveys U.S. military actions.
Additionally, highlighting President Trump’s preference for using social media platforms like X to communicate unmediated to the public, the White House went over two months without a conventional press briefing in 2019.
Attacks on the judicial branch erode legitimacy and breach democratic structural integrity:
Since President Trump’s second inauguration in January 2025, the U.S. federal courts have actively taken legal action to respond to a flood of Executive Orders and Memoranda, ensuring that each one adheres to the U.S. Constitution. Adverse rulings from the federal judiciary have been met with public attacks from President Trump, which claim that the rulings stem from political motivations.
In May 2025, Chief Justice Roberts released a public statement, emphasizing the importance of judicial independence amid increasing assaults from the executive branch.
The hostility from the executive has coincided with a rise in intimidation, as reports from Hill and Reuters document at least 11 judges and their families facing targeted threats through “swatting,” bomb threats, and unsolicited deliveries following rulings against President Trump.
Institutional Capture and Legal Manipulation
Thus far in 2025, multiple indicators of institutional capture and legal manipulation metastasized in the U.S. Signposts fulfilled to meet this component include nominations of loyalists to critical government agencies and regulatory bodies over experienced professionals, politicized oustings within homeland security agencies, harassment of opponents and dissidents during electoral processes, and the cultivation of rumors surrounding the potential circumvention of presidential term limits. Enhanced by executive administration actions thus far in 2025, the U.S. meets 53% of the signposts and indicators associated with this institutional capture and legal manipulation.
Appointments across intelligence, law enforcement, and oversight agencies signal prioritizing loyalty over experienced independence:
Kash Patel was narrowly confirmed as FBI Director in February 2025. A known loyalist to President Trump, AP reported that Patel demanded the names of thousands of agents who participated in investigations regarding the January 6, 2021, riots at the U.S. Capitol and has previously expressed he would “come after” anti-Trump “conspirators” in the federal government and media.
Also confirmed in February, U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi is a known staunch loyalist to President Trump, and refused at her confirmation hearing to rule out the possibility of investigations of opponents and dissidents of President Trump under her Justice Department.
On May 29, 2025, President Trump nominated Paul Ingrassia to lead the Office of Special Counsel (OSC) – an agency that safeguards merit principles in the civil services, protects whistleblowers, and enforces the Hatch Act. This law restricts federal employees’ political activities. Ignrassia previously served President Trump’s White House as a liaison but has made concerning statements in the past, including suggesting President Trump’s Opponent in the 2024 Republican primaries should be deported and defending an online influencer accused of human trafficking and rape in Europe.
Politicized firings and oustings in key national security forces allows for establishment of a coercive regime apparatus:
In March 2025, as part of a large scale-scale government reduction by the Trump administration and in preparation to enact mass and publicly contested immigration enforcement actions, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Offices for Civil Rights and Civil Liberties (CRCL), Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman (CISO), and Immigration Detention Ombudsman were gutted by over 100 personnel under the rationale that “these offices have obstructed immigration enforcement by adding bureaucratic hurdles and undermining DHS’s mission.”
In August 2025, the Trump administration ousted Brian Driscoll, a former senior FBI official who briefly served as acting FBI director during the first weeks of President Trump’s second term, for resisting demands made earlier in 2025 for the names of FBI agents involved in investigating the U.S. Capitol riot on January 6, 2021.
Delegitimization of election workers and harassment of election observers erodes bipartisan election processes:
During the 2020 and 2024 U.S. presidential election cycles, President Trump routinely discredited, delegitimized, and spurred harassment of election workers and observers.
In January 2021, during a call with Georgia state officials, President Trump called Ruby Freeman, a 62-year-old temporary vote worker, a "professional vote scammer," a "hustler," and a "known political operative" who "stuffed ballot boxes." His public attacks discrediting Freeman resulted in an onslaught of in-person and online threats to her and her family.
On November 5, 2024, Trump took to social media to allege without evidence that "massive cheating in [election] cheating in Philadelphia," a claim disputed and fact checked by independent agencies.
President Trump’s sale of merchandise and language indicating a third term stoke rumors of circumvention of constitutional term limits:
President Trump has both implied and explicitly expressed an interest in a third presidential term, directly contesting the Constitution’s 22nd Amendment. In April 2025, the Trump organization began selling “TRUMP 2028” hats. This merchandise campaigning for an unconstitutional third term has expanded into a portfolio of shirts, hats, and “can coolers.”
On March 30, 2025, during a phone call with NBC News, President Trump refused to rule out the possibility of seeking a third presidential term, stating he was “not joking” about it and suggesting there were “methods” to do so.
Loyalists in the legislative branch have signalled a willingness to support this; notably, Congressional Representative Andy Ogles (R-TN) introduced a House Joint Resolution to amend the Constitution to allow President Trump a third term.
Curtailment of Civil Liberties
Since President Trump’s second inauguration on January 20, 2025, ECHO has observed a significant erosion or the security of civil liberties in the U.S.; notably, unprecedented human rights concerns and military deployment in civilian spaces amidst heated protests. At present, the U.S. meets 25% of the signposts and indicators associated with the curtailment of civil liberties.
U.S. placed on human rights watchlist amidst dissent crackdowns:
In July 2025, NGO Civicus added the U.S. to a watchlist of nation states of concern, rating its civic space as “narrowed”--meaning that while civilians are still free to form associations and peacefully assemble, they are constrained by harassment, detainment, excessive force from law enforcement and media pressure limit full freedoms.
In their rationale, Civicus cited the Trump administration’s defunding of public broadcasters (i.e., PBS, NPR), the reported arrests of over 350 protestors (in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Austin, New York, and Dallas) of alleged recent unlawful Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tactics, the shooting of an Australian news correspondent with non-lethal ammunition during her coverage of anti-immigration raid protests in Los Angeles, and the U.S. sanctioning of United Nations special rapporteur for the West Bank and Gaza.
Fundamental democratic breaches as military assets and personnel are deployed in Los Angeles:
In June 2025, President Trump responded to ongoing anti-immigration raid protests by federalizing California’s National Guard and deploying 4,000 troops and 700 active-duty Marines to Los Angeles. The deployment has since been ruled illegal in violation of the Posse Comitatus Act by the U.S. District Court Judge Charles Breyer and appealed with the 9th U.S. Court of Appeals by the Trump administration on September 3, 2025.
In mid-August 2025, President Trump invoked emergency powers to seize control of the D.C. Metropolitan Police and deployed approximately 2,000 National Guard troops to patrol zones under federal authority. In late August 2025, citing concerns of crime, President Trump mused deploying troops to additional major Democratic-led U.S. cities, including Baltimore, Chicago, New York, and New Orleans.
On September 6, 2025, President Trump took to his social media Platform, Truth Social, to threaten deployment of military assets to Chicago. The post, shared concurrently on the official White House X account, states, “I love the smell of deportations in the morning… Chicago [is] about to find out why it’s called the Department of WAR.”
On August 25, 2025, President Trump ordered the Pentagon to establish National Guard units in Washington D.C. and nationwide–designated to“[quell] civil disturbances and ensuring the public safety and order whenever the circumstances necessitate, as appropriate under the law."
Consolidation of Power
ECHO identifies the mass purge of “disloyal” military officials, legislative subordination to executive will, and the permeation of propaganda which equates loyalty to the executive with patriotism in the U.S. as significant indicators of consolidation of power. At present, the U.S. meets 45% of the signposts and indicators associated with the consolidation of power.
Administrative purges of military and national security personnel deemed ‘disloyal’ erode national security and centralize power:
At the direction of President Trump, on August 19, 2025, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Tulsi Gabbard revoked the security clearances of 37 current and former intelligence officials. DNI Gabbard cited alleged politicization and manipulation of intelligence to undermine trust.
On August 22, 2025, in retaliation for the Defense Intelligence Agency’s (DIA) preliminary June assessment contradicting President Trump’s claims and stating the U.S. missile strikes only degraded Iran’s nuclear program capability by months, the Trump administration dismissed Lt. General Jeffrey Kruse and two other top commanders from their positions in DIA.
On August 23, 2025, Secretary of Defense (SECDEF) Pete Hegseth fired Vice Admiral Nancy Lacore and Rear Admiral Milton “Jamie” Sands III, the head of Naval Special Warfare Command, without providing a rationale to the public.
Deteriorating balance leaves congressional oversight impotent to the executive branch:
According to reporting from the national security forum Just Security, Senate confirmation processes in 2025 have been characterized by a lack of rigor and amicableness and described hearings as “ideological rubber stamping” rather than “robust scrutiny.”
On September 3, 2025, SECDEF Hegseth’s office abruptly canceled ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Mark Warner’s (D-VA) classified site visit to the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency (NGA). Warner, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, was barred from the visit after a far right conspiracy theorist levied social media attacks against him.
Alternative Futures Analysis
In order to scope numerous possibilities, underscore decisive events, and provide policymakers, law enforcement, watchdog organizations, and the American public with readily observable signposts for future tracking; ECHO utilized the structured analytic technique (SAT) Alternative Futures Analysis to generate four alternative future scenarios. This SAT considers two key future drivers and uncertainties–institutional resilience and the frequency and scope of crises. These produce four alternative futures, and four subsequent possible events and indicators that, if present, would signal the emerging scenario:
Crisis Autocracy - Under sustained and widespread crises, checks and balances crumble as the executive deploys militarization, wartime, and emergency powers en masse: (i) A major terrorist attack or overt conflict with a foreign nation spurs the executive administration to invoke emergency powers which centralize authority over the National Guard and suspend Posse Comitatus. (ii) Mass detentions of protestors and suspected agitators expands nationwide. Legal challenges to detentions are dismissed by loyalist courts or delayed indefinitely. (iii) Congress, dominated by a majority of loyalists in the House and Senate, passes legislation codifying the expanded executive powers including but not limited to surveillance and increased restrictions on assemblies. Nationwide militarization begins as deployments to major U.S. cities are normalized.
Stress-Tested Democracy - War or sustained civil unrest stuns systemic institutions; state, legislative, and judiciary components constrain emergency powers under duress: (i) Large-scale, nationwide urban unrest breaks out following mass immigration raids, states deny executive pressure to federalize National Guards, citing constitutional grounds. (ii) The federal judiciary issues repeated injunctions in response to the rapid and successive deployment of emergency powers; the Supreme Court affirms the judiciary's authority over executive decrees. (iii) Bipartisan congressional blocs pass enhanced oversight laws, restoring appropriations authority and restraining national emergency statutes. (iv) Elections are held in 2028 despite continued civil unrest under the protection of state and local government and law enforcement agencies, stabilizing public trust.
Slow-Boil Erosion - Absent the development of external or catalytic internal crises, executive consolidation of power continues quietly at a pace that does not spur mass violent unrest or civil dissent: (i) The executive branch fills vacancies from mass 2025 layoffs to the U.S. Intelligence Community (USIC) agencies by Department of Government Efficiency with loyalists, weakening non-partisan national security efforts. (ii) Pressure towards the executive administration mounts from the media and non-government organizations as defunding and new regulations erode public broadcasting and watchdog organizations. (iii) Term-limit rumors harden to debates as President Trump openly pushes for constitutional "reinterpretation" and amendments. Congressional loyalists sideline concerned Democrats and republican opposition, opening the door for the removal of term limits. (iv) Elections occur under technically legal but altered conditions with restricted observer access and state resistance suppressed by administrative rule changes. Public trust erodes as mass civil unrest remains muted.
Challenged, but Firm Democracy - Judicial challenges to executive power and nationwide civil unrest spur a shift in the congressional balance, reaffirming the structural integrity of checks and balances through a moderate legislature: (i) Federal courts remain vigilant in striking down executive overreach, and whistleblowers expose unlawful actions and policies by loyalist appointees. (ii) Bipartisan voter backlash from overreach fatigue from polarization leads to a congressional rebalancing--moderate coalitions gain control of the House. (iii) State attorneys general form bipartisan accords to resist unconstitutional federal mandates and ensure legal protections for dissenters and election integrity. (iv) Congressional reforms reaffirm election processes, independent watchdog agencies, and introduce novel bipartisan guardrails that initiate the reversal of institutional capture.
Conclusion
As of September 6, 2025, ECHO assesses that the U.S. is at moderate risk of democratic decline to autocracy, threatening constitutional integrity and national security. Our confidence in this assessment would increase should the additional indicators and signposts be observed, including: (i) credible reporting of military or security forces pledging loyalty at mass rallies; (ii) federal manipulation or direct control over election systems and technology; (iii) monopolization of broadcast or communication infrastructure by the executive; (iv) loyalty pledges required for federal employment in public safety, law enforcement, or intelligence agencies; and (v) constitutional amendments aimed at removing presidential term limits.
While ECHO has identified indicators of erosion across five of the six components of the decline of a democratic republic to autocracy, these represent serious systemic strain and early fractures within democratic institutions—but not yet irreversible damage. To stop or slow this decline, the American people must remain vigilant and take concerted efforts to (i) restore trust and legitimacy in American elections and democratic institutions, (ii) abandon populist candidates for moderate leadership in congressional and executive authorities, (iii) strengthen institutional resolve and firm term limits, (iv) reaffirm the strength and resiliency of state and local governments’ powers in policing and securing the civil liberties of their citizens.
**Methodology - Signposts & Indicators Analysis
For the purposes of this assessment, ECHO recognizes that the erosion of democratic republics into autocracy (DtA) through six interconnected components:
Democratic fatigue and the erosion of established norms, and a declining public trust in federal and state institutions;
The ‘rise of a strongman’ or populist leader;
Legal manipulation and institutional capture, characterized by the bending or eroding of constitutional rules and oversight bodies;
The curtailment of civil liberties and opposition strength (i.e., suppression of media, civil society, and organized opposition);
The consolidation of power into a single party invested in a personality cult; and finally,
Overt autocracy and dictatorship.
In structuring this analysis, ECHO leveraged the STEMPLES+ framework as a lens to capture the social, technological, economic, military, political, legal, environmental, and security dynamics that would impact institutional shifts. From this lens, ECHO defined 54 mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive signposts and indicators—nine for each component of DtA. A full breakdown of the weights, scoring, and rationale used for this assessment is included in the interactive graphic Signposts and Indicators - Sunburst below:
ECHO valued the weight of each indicator based on the following framework:
Weight 1: Peripheral/Contextual - Alone, this signpost and indicator is not indicative of a shift in the system but can add context
Weight 2: Secondary/Contributing - This signpost and indicator contributes to democratic decline but only in combination with stronger indicators
Weight 3: Significant/Amplifier - This signpost and indicator meaningfully accelerates decline and enables other risk factors, should raise concern
Weight 4: Critical/Structural - Presence of this signpost and indicator directly undermines democratic checks-and-balances systems
Weight 5: Foundational/Systemic - If compromised, this signpost and indicator nearly guarantees decline regardless of other indicators
ECHO valued the presence or lack of emergence of defined signposts and indicators based on evidence which met the following classifications:
Value 0 - No evidence at all
Value 1 - Rumors, weak, unverified reporting only
Value 2 - Isolated cases, limited deployment or presence
Value 3 - Multiple instances, moderate deployment or presence
Value 4 - Sustained deployment, widespread use
Value 5 - Normalized, perpetual deployment or presence
The Hierarchical Weighted Model (HWM) assessment produces a composite risk score of 46.15%, placing the U.S. at a moderate risk of democratic decline. This score reflects uneven but notable fulfillment of signposts and indicators across the five DtA components, with higher-weighted indicators exerting greater influence on the overall risk. The result underscores structural vulnerabilities that warrant sustained monitoring.
A full breakdown of ECHO’s Risk Matrix thresholds for DtA is included below:
0-15% - Very Low/Stable: Few or no indicators or signposts present; healthy system.
16-30% - Low/Watch: Early warning signs of compromised indicators and signposts visible, but non-structural
31-45% - Elevated/Guard: Signposts and indicators accumulate concern; democratic erosion starting.
46-60% - Moderate/Concerning: Several accelerant signposts and indicators are present; breaches in democratic structure are possible
61-80% - High/Severe: Signposts and indicators show sustained assault on democratic institutions; entrenched decline
81-100% - Critical/Collapse: Signposts and indicators metastasize, showing foundational breaches; democracy functionally disabled
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High confidence indicates that analytical judgements are based on robust and high-quality information, or that the nature of the issue allows for solid assessment. While additional reporting information sources may change the analytical assessment(s), these changes are likely to be refinements rather than substantive alterations to the assessment(s).
Medium confidence indicates that the information available can be interpreted in various ways, that ECHO has alternative views, or that the information is credible and plausible, but not corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence. Additional reporting or information sources can increase confidence levels or substantively alter the analytical assessment(s).
Low confidence indicates that the information used to make the analytical assessment(s) is sparse, questionable, or fragmented to the point where solid analytical inferences are difficult to make, or that ECHO has significant concerns. Absent additional reporting or information sources, analytical assessment(s) with low confidence are preliminary in nature.