The recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have sharply escalated tensions in the Middle East, expanding a shadow conflict into open confrontation with the potential for global spillover. Immediate concerns include asymmetric retaliation by Iranian-aligned proxy forces, breakdowns in nuclear transparency, economic instability tied to Strait of Hormuz security, and growing pressure on Gulf states and transatlantic alliances. Critically, the threat landscape now extends to the US homeland, where Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and the PLF may respond with cyberattacks, lone-actor terrorism, and symbolic reprisals. While not all proxies possess the means for high-impact operations, the post-strike environment presents new opportunities for self-radicalized violence and digital disruption.

Tensions between Israel and Iran are entering a volatile and unpredictable phase, with a high risk of escalation in the coming six months. Iran's accelerated nuclear enrichment – approaching weapons-capable thresholds – and Israel's increasingly public posture about preemption have set the stage for potential conflict. Covert operations, cyber warfare, and regional proxy clashes have already intensified, while both nations signal a readiness to raise the stakes if red lines are crossed.

Global competition for rare earth minerals (REMs), essential to defense, energy, and technology, is driving geopolitical tension and instability, particularly in Africa. As China maintains dominance in the REM supply chain, the US, EU, and others are turning to African sources, where weak governance and fragile institutions create openings for exploitation. Russia, through private military firms/private military contractors (PMFs/PMCs) like the Wagner Group, is using security contracts to secure mining assets and expand influence, often fueling corruption and conflict. This militarized scramble for REMs risks deepening regional instability and violence as demand rises, especially with the global shift toward green technologies.

OSINT is a vital tool across the US Intelligence Community (USIC), law enforcement, and private sector, enhancing situational awareness, cybersecurity, counterterrorism, and crisis response. Reports indicate that 80% of actionable intelligence in counterterrorism operations is sourced from OSINT, while its role in disaster response has improved emergency reaction times by 35%. However, adversarial states like Russia, China, and Iran increasingly exploit OSINT for cyber operations, espionage, and disinformation campaigns, with Russian-backed influence operations reaching tens of millions globally and Chinese economic espionage targeting over 200 Western firms in two years. Additionally, OSINT aids terrorist groups and cybercriminals in recruitment, planning, and misinformation. To mitigate these risks, intelligence agencies and businesses are integrating AI-driven validation methods, while governments are enforcing stricter policies and fostering public-private partnerships. A balanced approach that maximizes OSINT’s benefits while countering adversarial exploitation will be crucial to national security, corporate integrity, and global stability.